International arrivals to start arriving in full on Monday, is the state ready?

“If you accept the fact that Australia may have got rid of the virus, or in a short time we may have, there’s one main source of a third wave,” said Associate Professor Hassan Vally, a public health expert at La Trobe University.

“There’s more coronavirus worldwide than ever before. People coming back and staying in hotels are really the only way coronavirus can re-enter the country.”

By July, Victoria’s first line of defence had failed. Coronavirus leaked out of two quarantine hotels via security guards and workers, triggering the state’s second wave – which peaked in August with 725 new cases on a single day – and a $10 million inquiry by retired judge Jennifer Coate.

The lawyers leading the inquiry identified key problems in their final submissions: a lack of clear structure and accountability, a focus on logistics rather than health, an unprepared and inadequate workforce and a rushed and unrefined planning process.

Premier Daniel Andrews on Monday announced a new body that is charged solely with overseeing the revamped hotels program: COVID-19 Quarantine Victoria (CQV).

The state’s prison boss, Corrections Commissioner Emma Cassar, will lead CQV. She will report directly to Police Minister Lisa Neville. If things go wrong, a multimillion-dollar inquiry will not be needed to ascertain who was in charge. The Age lodged multiple requests to interview Ms Cassar this week, which were rejected by the government.

Although former health minister Jenny Mikakos resigned after the Premier pointed the finger at her as ultimately responsible for the initial hotel quarantine scheme, Ms Mikakos insisted there was shared responsibility across various government departments.

Accommodation Australia chief executive Dean Long, speaking on behalf of the 11 hotels involved in the new program, said the lack of clear reporting lines was their biggest complaint last time – and would have prevented hotels signing up again if it hadn’t been fixed.

“Long-term reputational damage where the program isn’t managed correctly is a major concern for the industry,” Mr Long said. “Guests aren’t receiving a Novotel or Holiday Inn experience, it’s a government-run program, but we’re satisfied it’s been designed well.”

The first recommendation of the inquiry’s interim report was for public health to be paramount. Yet the new program is led by the state government’s justice department.

The government recently announced Professor Ben Cowie as the Deputy Chief Health Officer in charge of health in quarantine hotels.

On Friday, Professor Cowie said he and Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton had earlier visited one of the hotels and signed off on the arrangements in place.

“Community safety through infection prevention and control measures is central to the new program,” he said.

His role was to “provide leadership across all the health aspects of the program and ensure that all infection control measures are in place and are being followed”.

Professor Cowie has worked with Professor Sutton to devise the program. This is a shift from the Chief Health Officer expressing in an email to colleagues his “unease – moral and legal” at being excluded from the first program’s planning.

Around 300 police officers and 170 Australian Defence Force troops will provide security.

It was to be 220 ADF, until it was revealed on Friday that the federal government had rejected Victoria’s request that troops monitor every floor of the “hot” hotels that will house COVID-positive arrivals.

Opposition police spokesman David Southwick fumed over the arrival of only 109 ADF personnel in Melbourne for training on Friday, reigniting a line of attack that criticised the Premier for enlisting less ADF help than the more-efficient NSW hotels scheme the first time round.

“Daniel Andrews has had months to get his revamped hotel quarantine program right, yet is still scrambling just days from arrivals landing,” Mr Southwick said.

The Andrews government considered using a home quarantine system possibly featuring ankle bracelets or phone tracking technology, as recommended by the Coate inquiry, but said it was impractical without national cabinet endorsing it for all states and territories.

Another recommendation ignored by the government is that every hotel’s site manager should have experience managing “complex healthcare facilities”.

Instead, from Monday, managers with “corrections and general operations experience” will oversee hotels, while Alfred Health provides healthcare expertise at the two “hot” hotels.

A cap of 160 travellers a day will be accommodated in Victoria’s hotels. About 125 travellers from five charters out of Colombo, Doha, Hong Kong and Singapore (two flights) will be the first to encounter Victoria’s new safeguards as they step off their planes on Monday.

Those displaying COVID-19 symptoms will be shuttled from the airport tarmac, into a bus and driven to either the Holiday Inn on Flinders or Novotel South Wharf.

Guests pay $3000 per adult for their 14-day stay, about the same price as other states. And quarantine means quarantine: the government has blocked fresh air or exercise breaks, reduced interactions between guests and workers and prevented scenarios uncovered in the inquiry where travellers would be allowed to walk in CBD laneways.

The fresh-air ban defies another of the inquiry’s recommendations. Philip Russo, one of Australia’s top infection control experts, said it could have the perverse impact of encouraging rule-breaking or misbehaviour among guests, possibly increasing the risk of transmission.

“The sound of not getting fresh air for two weeks makes me wonder how many people will try and sneak out,” said Professor Russo, deputy chair of the federal government’s Infection Control Expert Group.

Professor Vally from La Trobe calls it a tough but necessary decision.

“You have to treat everyone as if they potentially have COVID, and if someone potentially has COVID, do you really want them walking through the hotel?

“From a guest perspective, it will be a really hard 14 days. It will make it that bit harder, but I guess for the benefit of the community that is the call that’s made.”

Victoria has maintained its two “hot” hotels in prime CBD locations, primarily for access to emergency services. Yet COVID-positive security guards returning to their families in Melbourne every night was the fuel that propelled the start of the second wave.

Professor Russo was one of several experts calling for quarantine to be established outside CBD hubs to avoid such situations , like in Sydney on Thursday, where a cleaner who contracted COVID-19 worked across two hotels, took public transport home and interacted with her family – who thankfully tested negative.

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Cost, logistics and resourcing could all hinder the establishment of a regional facility, says Professor Russo, but the short-term cost could pay off in the long-run.

“We are responding to this virus but we need to keep in mind this isn’t the only pandemic we’ll be dealing with in future,” he says. “Australia is uniquely placed because we’re an island. We can control the international arrivals so all options should be considered.”

Beyond excluding private security, the state government has imposed the strictest workforce rules of any hotel quarantine program Australia-wide: every worker will be contracted by the government or Alfred Health, banned from working at any other location, have their household contacts pre-mapped and vetted for contact tracing purposes, undergo daily testing and be offered out-of-home accommodation if they live with aged care workers.

Professor Vally warns tying employees to one workplace may turn them away and on Friday the government was still advertising for “Resident Support Officers” – roles mostly taken up by former airline staff so far – to be paid a salary up to $85,000.

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“But I think you have to give credit to the government,” he says, “for setting up those safeguards and really learning from their mistakes the hard way.”

“Issues could now arise that they hadn’t considered, and we’ll watch to see how flexible and responsive the government will be.”