Tips and race-by-race guide for Orange on Monday

Odds and Evens: Split.

Race 2: MAIDEN HANDICAP (1100m)

Deeper and intriguing sprint, with a few chances. All aboard three-year-old 4. Solva returning as a gelding for a strong metropolitan stable. Didn’t really handle the heavy going when well backed on debut at Goulburn, but has trialled impressively and back on top of the ground is a big key. Was scratched from both Canberra and Hawkesbury on Sunday to race here.

Dangers: Well-bred filly 8. Miss Baltimore is the only first starter in the field, and has had two strong and spaced trials. A breeding standout by globe-trotting Group 1 winner Starspangledbanner, and the dam is by power speedster Iglesia and a full sister to Written Tycoon. Stablemate filly 6. Can’t Get Enough finished off okay first-up at Canberra right on the heels of Northernero, who then swept home to win a BM 58 at Albury on Saturday. Watch the betting on four-year-old mare and ex-Victorian 9. Bethpage having first run for a new Goulburn stable off a seven break.

How to play it: Solva win; box exacta 4,6,8.

Odds and Evens: Evens a special.

Race 3: CLASS 1 HANDICAP (1400m)

Like the value here about five-year-old Canberra mare 5. Rosy Dawn getting out to this distance third-up. Has done her best work late in two runs back, and well weighted considering she carried 1.5kg more running home late in a stronger BM 60 behind the smart Fusca.

Dangers: Much will depend on whether four-year-old gelding 2. The Poet can get across from a wide gate carrying a big weight. Swept home to win his maiden first-up at Coonamble and was narrowly beaten here in a similar race last month. Former Victorian mare 3. Poor Sam has had two mixed runs in and around this grade for new Mudgee yard, but will also need to slot in from an awkward barrier.

How to play it: Rosy Dawn win.

Odds and Evens: Split.

Race 4: OPEN HANDICAP (1400m)

Not totally sold on the inside barrier here for Goulburn six-year-old 5. Obelos, but his two closing runs back from a spell in Saturday Highway company read very well for this. He’s also one of the better weighted runners all day dropping 3.5kg to the limit 55kg. Must be the one to beat.

Dangers: Tough Canberra six-year-old 2. Upper House was a dynamic first-up winner charging home in a stronger BM 85 Federal at home, but he’s never been a noted second-up performer. Also goes up 3kg in weight. Wellington mare 4. The Long Run had been consistently finding the line this prep before being beaten out of sight in the much tougher Mudgee Cup. Naturally better placed back in this company from a handy draw. Forbes eight-year-old 6. Caszar is hard fit and best of the rest sneaking down in the weights.

How to play it: Obelos to win.

Odds and Evens: Split.

Race 5: BM 58 HCP (1600m)

Good depth for this grade, but they’ll have a job holding off progressive Warwick Farm three-year-old 3. Always Sure who rattled home at second start to claim his maiden at Canberra. Will again settle well back from a wide draw and look to power over the top.

Dangers: Improving six-year-old 4. Petain has paid the price for missing by a whisker getting home hard in a stronger BM 66 at Mudgee, shooting up 4kg to a taxing 59kg, considering he’s still only won three from 40. Include hard fit seven-year-old 6. Pittsburgh who conversely looks well treated at the weights after a 3kg claim, and flying home from the back to beat all bar the winner in similar grade at Dubbo.

How to play it: Always Sure to win.

Odds and Evens: Split.

Race 6: CLASS 2 PLATE (1280m)

Open and competitive stoush at set weights. Keen at good odds on six-year-old Canberra mare 10. Milamoo over more ground second-up, and the fact she was preferred here to a BM 65 at home track on Sunday. Record is only fair and fresh effort was what you’d expect, but nearly always produces her best after one run back.

Dangers: Capable five-year-old mare 8. Arithmetic normally takes a run to find her best, but a recent trial win has her primed fresh, with leading country hoop taking over. Improving local five-year-old 6. Vaquero did very little resuming at big odds, but will naturally improve into a more suitable second-up race back at home where he’s never missed a place; while six-year-old 13. Rozburg will be closing off from a wide draw after doing his best work late in a weaker race at the Sapphire Coast.

How to play it: Milamoo each way; rifecta 6,8,10/6,8,10/6,8,10,13.

Odds and Evens: Evens.

Race 7: BM 58 HANDICAP (1000m)

The run of lightly raced Goulburn seven-year-old 4. Alfstar in a Highway at Rosehill from a wide barrier was better than it looked, and he can rebound back in this grade from the inside draw. Had previously motored home to just miss in a similar race carrying the same weight, and can settle closer this time.

Dangers: Progressive three-year-old filly 10. Arizona Night has trialled strongly ahead of her first run in nearly four months, but drawn off the track. Both runs in winter, including that second start maiden win, were in heavy going. Hawkesbury six-year-old 1. Charlie Chap scraped home in that same race here as Alfstar, but doubt he can repeat the dose meeting him 2kg worse off; while 8. Indicators On fourth-up and 3. Mont Genep second-up, with a much stronger rider on, can both be included in exotics.

How to play it: Alfstar to win.

Odds and Evens: Evens.