Expect more ruck and maul from Craig Kelly, Liberal breakaway

Morrison would certainly not have bailed out Kelly this time. Kelly has revelled in playing the maverick, as a climate denier, as a Trump-like supporter of conspiracy theories and as a backer – against official medical advice – of the unproven COVID-19 treatments hydroxychloroquine or ivermectin. And who could forget his claim that mandating masks for children amounted to “child abuse”?

As with Trump, Kelly has built his persona on social media, especially Facebook, and through saturation performances on Murdoch media, particularly on Sky News. Facebook banned his posts for a week, saying he violated its COVID-19 misinformation policy.

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Kelly demonstrates just how ridiculous you can become when you believe your own media. Of course, Kelly pleads his case as “staying true” to his “conscious” (sic), “principles and “beliefs” – that he needs to be an independent to speak “fearlessly” and “faithfully” about the issues that concern him.

Just how much will Kelly’s defection hurt Scott Morrison and his government’s agenda in the prelude to an election? Expectedly, Morrison dismisses any significant effect, even though he has lost his working majority in the House of Representatives. “The government will continue to function, as it has successfully … we will continue to do so undistracted.”

Kelly made all the right noises, committing to support the government on supply, confidence, and on legislation to deliver election promises. He also praised Morrison, expressing his hope that he will go on to be one of the longest-serving and greatest Liberal prime ministers.

Morrison could probably still govern if he lost another member but could need to win a cross-bencher, or rely on the Speaker’s casting vote, if Kelly were to oppose.

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The real test could come on issues such as climate and energy. The National Party has been courting Kelly. While he ruled out joining the party on Wednesday, he will consider Barnaby Joyce amendments to the government’s legislation that would allow the Clean Energy Finance Corporation to invest in coal.

Kelly’s positions can, however, be muddled. Lately he claims the global climate is getting “cooler, not hotter”, yet in his maiden speech he declared himself an “environmentalist … concerned about the health effects from fine particulate matter in diesel exhaust, as studies in California show that diesel exhaust leads to 9000 premature deaths annually”. Clearly, the sum of particulate matter from coal-fired power and the government’s commitment, under its national standards, to stick with our “dirty fuel” (by OECD standards) until 2028 should challenge Kelly’s support for the Nats and their amendments.

Morrison faces mounting global pressure to lift Australia’s commitment to cut its emissions, with Joe Biden’s April summit leading to the Boris Johnson-driven COP26 in Glasgow in November. Kelly reckons it would be “political suicide” for the government to adopt a net zero emissions target for 2050. It is now a risk for Morrison if Kelly’s defection emboldens a number of Nats to cross the floor on climate. That could force him to marshal support from the other three independents, and three minor parties, especially if Labor continues to indulge in the climate wars.

Kelly has claimed about 40 per cent of the Nats (six or seven members) support the Joyce amendment. The opposition has already declared it will oppose the current bill, and the government is obviously nervous, having pulled it from the order of business for Wednesday. This could get ugly given the dislike of Morrison by many of the Nats, and while Joyce, Matt Canavan and Bridget McKenzie want to destabilise their leader, Michael McCormack.

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One trump (that’s with a small ‘t’) card held by Morrison is the May budget. As is almost tradition, he can push some more “pork” to the Nats to ensure their crucial support. And Kelly may not win friends with his continued backing of his office manager, Frank Zumbo, who the Prime Minister wanted him to remove.

Zumbo, the subject of a provisional apprehended violence order, has denied allegations of inappropriate behaviour towards young interns. He will oppose the AVO at a hearing in June and has not been charged with any offences. Kelly acknowledged Zumbo in his maiden speech in 2010, asserting “the free-enterprise system knows no greater friend, and I am proud to have you sitting in the gallery. I would not be here without your friendship and advice.”

Kelly has lost some political allies since then. Expect him to seize any opportunity to keep his name in lights. Expect more of the old Kelly ruck and maul.

John Hewson is a professor at the Crawford School of Public Policy, ANU, and a former Liberal opposition leader.