How NSW Waratahs can stun underdone Queensland Reds

A traditional trials plan for a returning Wallaby before Super Rugby is to miss the first trial, play 40 minutes in the second trial and then 60-80 minutes if there is a third.

Taniela Tupou will be a crucial player to this Reds outfit but he will start this season from the bench, and that’s understandable given that tricky start to 2021.

Brad Thorn must be applauded for his decision to wait until his Wallabies returned for they started the Reds to Regions program, where they sent players all over regional Queensland to connect with clubs, schools and Reds supporters. It must have been tempting to do it in December.

Thorn and the Reds’ excellent Head of Performance Damien Marsh sacrificed a important training days in the belief that fostering greater connection with their supporter base outside south-east Queensland was more important.

All of this adds up to an opportunity for the NSW Waratahs, the least experienced team in all of Super Rugby AU and Super Rugby Trans-Tasman.

Make no mistake, the Tahs fly to Brisbane as underdogs. They’ve been bleeding talent, experience and rugby IP over the last few years and with season about to start, the ‘why’ is moot. But what it will mean is that we will see peaks and troughs in the Waratahs’ form this season.

Waratahs fans can hope to see the Waratahs displaying the same verve as seen in their 45-10 victory over Queensland at the SCG in 2020, but they can expect some frustrating moments too.

NSW are undeniably talented but they’re untested, too. They will need to be lucky with injury or depth will be quickly tested, and the Waratahs’ new Kiwi lock recruits must perform from the outset if they’re to have any chance of improving on their 4th-placed finish last year.

It was one win each between NSW and Queensland in 2020 and the hallmarks of those victories will probably still ring true a year on.

The Reds continually sent ball carriers at young Waratahs flyhalf Will Harrison, and achieved fast, front-foot ball.

That momentum carried through to the Reds controlling territory and eventually the scoreboard, but ill-discpline kept NSW in that match and remained an Achilles heel throughout last year.

Harrison is a brave defender who needs to lower his tackling target area to be more efficient at bringing bigger men to ground this year.

The Tahs may place a forward such as openside flanker Carlo Tizzano at his shoulder to help with the load, or they may contemplate shifting Harrison out of the front line of defence at lineout time. This will create opportunities for the Reds to use their maul as a weapon, or to attack at its edges.

The Waratahs flogged the Reds at the SCG in 2020 by continually fing space out wide, and cutting the Reds defence to pieces once they got in behind the primary defensive line. There is risk and reward in the Reds’ outside backs propensity in defence to rush up outside-to-in, trying to shut down opposition attacks.

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The open, almost-chaotic nature of the game suited NSW halfback Jake Gordon and Harrison and they’re in those same roles in round one. Look for the Tahs to play up tempo and to get the ball back in play quickly.

The possibility of a wet track should play into the Reds’ hands over the course of the 80 minutes , with game controllers James O’Connor and Hamish Stewart in the no.10 and no.12, and they have smart players Tate McDermott, Jock Campbell and even Bryce Hegarty off the bench.

The Tahs will have an edge matching Angus Bell and Harry Johnson-Holmes against the new-look Reds front row, which features props Dane Zander and Feao Fotuaika. If NSW find dominance in the scrum we might see Taniela Tupou and Harry Hoopert enter the fray sooner rather than later.

The Reds are the better team and should go close to winning Super Rugby AU. But the Waratahs arrive in Brisbane with their mouthguards, boots and that most dangerous thing for every teams’ supporters – hope.