The groundwork was laid recently in visits to Japan by both Defence Minister Linda Reynolds last month and more recently by Foreign Affairs Minister Marise Payne for the ministerial meeting of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (the Quad) with India and the United States.
The agenda is important beyond the elevation of security ties. Mr Suga has committed Japan to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. That follows similar commitments from China and South Korea. Those are Australia’s main energy customers, presenting a major challenge and opportunity for Australia.
Yoshihide Suga (R) presents flowers to his predecessor Shinzo Abe after Suga was elected as new head of Japan’s ruling party in September.Credit:Getty
The bilateral trade and investment relationship is in good shape. How both countries protect their economic security and openness from global economic uncertainties is a priority on which the two leaders will be wise to signal an interest in working with others. Both countries are tightening foreign investment rules in the name of security and are trying to navigate the entanglement of economics and security policy around China’s rise and the uncertain response from Washington.
As US allies that both have China as their largest trading partner, Australia and Japan are anchors of stability and security in the region. Together they have the ability to steer and shape positive regional outcomes.
A major boost is the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement concluded on the eve of the visit. RCEP includes Australia, Japan, the 10 ASEAN countries in south-east Asia plus China, New Zealand and South Korea. It’s the largest trade deal in the world except for the World Trade Organisation, which provides the multilateral scaffolding for it. East Asia’s RCEP agreement sends a strong message of commitment to rules, openness and reform as the world looks for more certainty. It gives multilateral trade momentum but much more is needed.
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Canberra and Tokyo need to find creative ways to keep India engaged for eventual RCEP membership. Protectionist forces are still rife globally and President-elect Biden will probably be too focused on domestic divisions to be able to undo the damage from the “America First” agenda any time soon.
Deft and strategic diplomacy and co-operation will be needed to manage and navigate the China-US relationship. A Biden presidency will co-operate selectively with China on global issues such as climate change and the recovery from COVID-19 without stepping back from strategic competition. There will be more support for multilateral institutions but big powers do deals with little regard for others. Australia is still dealing with the fallout of the trade deal between the two with China needing to divert purchases of Australian agricultural products to try to reach agreed US quotas.
Australian and Japanese interests are closely aligned but not identical. Their core interests and approach to others in Asia, including China, differ. Japan has improved its relationship with China in recent years while protecting its fundamental interests. In prosecuting a shared agenda, Australia and Japan would be wise to deploy the vast assets in the bilateral relationship including the people-to-people ties, business and academic links to deepen engagement and co-operation including in the wider region.
Australia and Japan face challenges that require multilateral solutions. Mr Morrison and Mr Suga will have to mobilise a broader collective effort to succeed in that.
Shiro Armstrong is director of the Australia-Japan Research Centre at The Australian National University.
