Why the Richmond Tigers can’t be denied

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In 2021, there’s no longer Richmond denialism. They are favourites, until proven otherwise. The question is whether there’s a club with the mettle, game style – and good fortune – to tame them.

Port Adelaide, Geelong and the Brisbane Lions shape as teams that are most capable of supplanting Richmond. Yes, they were all in the top four last year, but each of them has added talent – Port bringing in Aliir Aliir to an undersized defence and Orazio Fantasia to an already imposing group of small forwards; the Lions have Joe Daniher in the goal-square, while the Cats will have Jeremy Cameron helping Tom Hawkins terrorise tall backs, with Shaun Higgin and Isaac Smith providing further experience and class.

Of that trio, Port is the team that most appeals as the challenger. The Power have similar speed to Richmond, can play a frenetic style – or slow play – and have more growth in their younger ranks, especially Connor Rozee, Zak Butters, Xavier Duursma and Mitch Georgiades.

The Western Bulldogs shape as a finalist, as Adam Treloar makes their midfield more complete, and Marcus Bontempelli enters the season as the player most capable of usurping Dustin Martin as the game’s best. They just aren’t as seasoned as the top few, nor as defensively adept.

West Coast is hard to dislodge from the eight, especially when they aren’t in a hub and cast as East Coast Eagles. Injuries to Elliott Yeo and Luke Shuey, however, are a concern, along with the age profile.

Collingwood is the most vulnerable of the top eight by dint of the senior players – Treloar most of all – sacrificed in the fire sale and through retirements. The Pies have a strong core, but depth in the midfield and that perennial key forward hole makes them parlous. I have them ninth.

Who comes in? The starved fans of Carlton and Melbourne will be hoping that their teams, rebuilt and ready to ascend, will play finals again, while Fremantle and the Giants would have the same aspiration.

But the Blues and Demons, for all their vaunted acquisitions over the past couple of years – Carlton having two excellent runners in Zac Williams and Adam Saad – can’t be trusted, in the same way that the best teams are bankable.

Fremantle, less fashionable than Carlton and the Dees, is my choice to fill a final eight spot. The Dockers defend very well under Justin Longmuir, their midfield is improving as Andrew Brayshaw and Adam Cerra emerge and they have the formidable talents of Nathan Fyfe.

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Sydney should be winning more games with Isaac Heeney and even Franklin back, but I doubt they have enough seasoned talent to play finals; the Swans have another year before their great leap forward.

Essendon is beginning a major renovation of their list and, with a weakened spine and very youthful list profile, will not break that 16-year drought of no finals victories. GWS has lost Cameron and Williams and while it can make the eight, this column has lost faith.

Gold Coast will have to travel in 2021 and remains too callow to seriously compete for a finals berth.
The Hawks are squarely in the middle of a list reconstruction and shape as a bottom four side, although Clarkson can conjure unexpected wins; their objective will be to ready themselves for a tilt in the future.

Adelaide and North Melbourne will be down in the cellar, with the only consolation that expectations are commensurate with their likely ladder finish. Both of those bottom two from 2020 have jettisoned experience – the trading of Higgins and Ben Brown by North marking them as a club that is playing the long game in the draft.