When President Trump talks about polling, his focus is very much on survey-takers that he thinks are good for him. Polls that show him trailing Joseph R. Biden Jr. — virtually all national polls — are simply “fake news.”

The president’s blinkered view has created something of an alternate universe, one not governed by polling averages or independent analysis but by declarative statements that, at times, feel as if they are coming out of nowhere.

This month, Mr. Trump proclaimed on Twitter that he was “winning BIG in all of the polls that matter.”

Such polls seem to boil down to…



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